NEW YORK, New York, December 14, 2024 (ENS) – Again this year, as it does every year, the New York-based nonprofit International Rescue Committee has issued an Emergency Watchlist spotlighting the countries most likely to face growing humanitarian crises in the year ahead. Sudan tops the 2025 list of emergencies, followed closely by the Occupied Palestinian territory, Myanmar and Syria.
Taking into account the likelihood and effects of war, economic instability, climate change and other challenges, the list shows the 20 places that IRC warns are “bearing the brunt of a world increasingly out of balance.”
Despite making up only 11 percent of the world’s population, these countries account for a outsized 82 percent of all those in urgent need of humanitarian aid.
The International Rescue Committee list of the 10 countries most at risk in 2025:
- Somalia: Conflict and drought drive destabilization
For the third consecutive year, Somalia remains on the Emergency Watchlist’s top 10.
Al-Shabaab, a powerful armed group, conducted more than 120 attacks in the first nine months of 2024 and its influence could expand as the African Union’s stabilization mission (ATMIS) prepares to withdraw from the country. Meanwhile, rising inter-clan conflict has fueled instability, the IRC reports.
Climate shocks also pose an enormous threat to the East African nation. Somalia is still recovering from a catastrophic drought that lasted from 2021 to 2023 and worsened hunger and childhood acute malnutrition across the country. But regardless of Somalia’s extreme vulnerability to climate change, it has received less than 0.1 percent of global climate finance funding.
Somalia’s hunger crisis is set to worsen through the first months of 2025 due to both continuing conflict and the impacts of the La Niña weather pattern, although this is expected to be weak and short-lived in the coming year. La Niña conditions lead to drier and warmer temperatures overall, with extreme cold spells.
Escalating conflict could destabilize Somalia as the government faces growing threats and reduced international support.
Climate shocks – including droughts and floods – could reverse agricultural recovery efforts. At least 1.6 million children are expected to suffer from acute malnutrition in 2024 to 2025, limiting their ability to grow and develop a healthy immune system. Any escalation in conflict or climate shocks could worsen Somalia’s hunger crisis in 2025.
Even with international debt relief, over 20 percent of Somalis are still in extreme poverty. Nearly one million people living in territories controlled by Al-Shabaab are cut off from aid.
IRC has supported Somalia since 1981, with current continuous operation beginning in 2007. The IRC assists families by providing health care for malnourished children, giving cash transfers with no conditions, rehabilitating water sources, and offering mobile health services.
- Mali: Unabating and spreading multi-front conflict
Hunger in Mali is getting worse due to an escalating conflict that has been raging for 12 years. Now, Mali is facing a severe food crisis. Armed groups are attacking granaries and blocking supply routes, while flooding is destroying crops. More than 2,500 people are already experiencing the highest level of food insecurity and are at risk of starvation, the IRC warns. This number is expected to grow as attacks on food supplies and disruptions to distribution continue.
More cities are under siege, with the Malian military government and the Russian Wagner Group fighting against armed factions like the Tuareg forces, Islamic State in the Greater Sahara, ISGS, and Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin, JNIM.
The exit of United Nations and French military support has led to an increase in civilian casualties. Meanwhile, ISGS and JNIM expanded blockades, cutting off access to food, water and humanitarian aid for hundreds of thousands of people.
United Nations monitoring groups have reported a 288 percent increase in human rights violations and a 66 percent rise in violence against women and girls in Mali from 2023 to 2024.
The growing power of armed groups in Mali puts civilians in increasing danger as more towns fall under their control. With these groups operating with impunity, killings, kidnappings and displacement are expected to rise.
Mali, one of the countries most vulnerable to climate change, faced catastrophic floods in 2024 that displaced over 350,000 people. Yet the nation has received only 0.6 percent of global climate funding. This has left communities without support to address a crisis they did not create.
Since 2012, the IRC has provided aid to over half a million Malians affected by conflict. These communities face severe food shortages and a lack of essential services such as health care and education. The IRC is collaborating with partners to gather data and improve its malnutrition treatment programs. The goal is to reach and assist more severely malnourished children in Mali and beyond.
- Haiti: Gang violence spurs humanitarian collapse
Gang violence and governmental dysfunction have thrown Haiti into a state of crisis. President Jovenel Moïse’s 2021 assassination worsened instability. Criminal gangs have grown stronger and more organized, expanding their influence and causing widespread chaos.
Natural disasters like earthquakes and hurricanes have worsened the crisis, leaving nearly half the population in severe hunger and extreme poverty.
As gangs continue to fight for control over Haiti’s resources and population, the IRC predicts that 2025 will see high levels of insecurity and disruption to humanitarian aid and economic development.
The current Transitional Presidential Council continues to face shortfalls in restoring security in the country amidst political instability.
Expansive gang control puts millions of Haitans at risk, as sexual violence, kidnappings, displacement and extortion continue to plague communities, hindering humanitarian efforts and economic recovery.
Communities will face growing hunger and disease outbreaks as gangs stifle the delivery of humanitarian support and limit residents’ access to health services.
Poor infrastructure and a limited capacity to mitigate and respond to climate shocks mean that storms or earthquakes will carry devastating human impacts in 2025.
The IRC has been supporting Haiti since 2010, working with civil society organizations to meet community needs. In December 2022, the IRC launched a new emergency response, partnering with trusted organizations that have long supported Haitians. Together, we focus on cholera prevention, health care, clean water and sanitation, child protection and addressing gender-based violence.
- Burkina Faso: Civilians endure sieges and massacres
Burkina Faso remains in the top 10 of the Emergency Watchlist for the third year in a row. Attacks by armed groups, like ISGS and JNIM, have brutally displaced millions across the country and the wider Sahel region.
Armed groups have isolated nearly 40 towns, an increase from just one town in 2021, cutting off about two million people from the rest of the country and disrupting vital aid. Attacks on hospitals, schools and communities are putting civilians in even greater danger.
Civilians in Burkina Faso are facing severe violence from armed groups such as JNIM and ISGS, with over 1,800 civilian deaths recorded in early 2024, the IRC warns. The group is alarmed at reports suggesting the military is involved in mass killings, which could intensify the conflict into 2025.
Attacks on aid workers are preventing families in Burkina Faso from receiving lifesaving support.
Burkina Faso faces climate shocks like flooding and a dengue fever outbreak. However, with less than one percent of global climate funding, the country is limited in its ability to deal with future climate shocks.
An economic crisis could push more people into poverty. Mining exports have been particularly affected. With poverty levels already at 43 percent, many international partners have stopped providing support.
The IRC began emergency response efforts in Burkina Faso in 2019 and launched an official country program in 2020. The organization provides essential support in health, nutrition, safety, education and economic recovery. The IRC focuses on empowering communities by partnering with local organizations, particularly those led by women, to drive lasting change.
- Lebanon: Israel-Hezbollah conflict escalates crisis
A deadly new phase of conflict between Hezbollah and Israel pushes Lebanon into the top 10 of the Emergency Watchlist for the first time.
Hezbollah and Israel agreed to a ceasefire on November 27, 2024, bringing a level of relative calm after two months of intense ground combat and airstrikes – and over a year of cross-border fire. However, a ceasefire alone does not end the acute humanitarian need.
The conflict caused devastation, forcing 1.4 million people to flee their homes in Lebanon and displacing 60,000 in northern Israel. It also came after a multiyear economic crisis that has weakened the health care system and left record numbers of people going hungry.
Hawra’a and her three children were forced to flee their home in southern Lebanon due to the escalating conflict. A few days after evacuating, the family learned that their home was destroyed by an airstrike.
Any resurgence of conflict in Lebanon would present new threats for the 3.7 million people already in need of humanitarian assistance.
Lebanon’s health care system is collapsing due to conflict and economic strains. Eight hospitals have closed and seven are working with limited capacity. This increases the risk of diseases like cholera spreading.
The economy is also collapsing. Food insecurity is rising and 80 percent of the population was already living in poverty before the latest escalation. The Lebanese pound has lost 98 percent of its value since 2019, while food prices have risen by 350 percent. As the situation in Lebanon deteriorates, authorities may pressure Syrian refugees to return to Syria despite ongoing dangers.
Since 2012, the IRC has supported Lebanese citizens and refugees. In September 2024, the group responded to the conflict by delivering emergency aid. The IRC works with local partners to assist displaced people, providing meals, financial assistance, shelter, hygiene kits and medical care that have directly reached tens of thousands of people in crisis.
Ivo Freijsen, UNHCR Representative in Lebanon, told reporters at a November 15, 2024 press briefing at the Palais des Nations in Geneva, “The past few weeks have been the deadliest and most devastating for Lebanon and its people in decades, with Israel dramatically intensifying its airstrikes and ground incursions, deepening the humanitarian catastrophe for civilians.”
“In Lebanon, more than 3,500 people have now been killed, 15,000 wounded, and an estimated 1.3 million directly impacted and uprooted from their homes since October 2023. The ongoing hostilities have torn apart countless lives, creating devastating protection challenges and leaving many vulnerable and at great risk,” Freijsen said.
- South Sudan: Conflict and climate disaster deepen crisis
South Sudan is in the Emergency Watchlist’s top five for the second year in a row. The country faces threats from conflict in neighboring Sudan, political instability and the climate crisis.
Violence is widespread, severe annual flooding has caused damage to food production, and the country is facing an economic crisis. To add to the challenges, the nation also struggles to meet the needs of 878,000 Sudanese refugees.
Local conflict is likely to worsen in 2025 as economic collapse fuels additional violence in South Sudan.
The conflict in Sudan is disrupting South Sudan’s oil exports, hurting its economy. The country is facing severe hyperinflation and a falling currency. Food prices have surged by 95 percent in a year.
Political tensions are high. A fragile peace agreement that ended South Sudan’s civil war will expire in February 2025. Escalating violence and instability could spark a wider conflict, displacing more people and worsening the humanitarian crisis.
Violence against aid workers is preventing life-saving support from reaching those in need. Experts project that more than 2.1 million children in South Sudan will suffer from acute malnutrition in 2025.
Five years of flooding have put a million people at risk of waterborne diseases and harmed agriculture. If climate adaptation measures are not taken, more flooding in 2025 will lead to hunger and potentially to famine in hard-to-reach areas.
Since the conflict in Sudan began, the IRC has been helping refugees and returnees in South Sudan, providing life-saving health, nutrition and protection services to meet urgent needs and address safety concerns at entry points.
- Syria: Surprise offensive threatens progress towards stability
Syria is back in the top five of the Emergency Watchlist, marking its first appearance since 2021. In late 2024, nonstate armed groups launched a surprise attack, triggering a rapid collapse of the government forces of Bashir al Assad, who has been granted asylum in Russia.
After years of relative stability, the conflict has escalated, affecting millions of Syrians who have been at war for 14 years. This conflict has led to the world’s second-largest displacement crisis, with 13.8 million people forced out of their homes, and pushed the population into widespread poverty.
Whether the recent, momentous shifts will allow Syrians to rebuild their lives in 2025 or deepen the crisis remains unanswered.
After fourteen years of conflict, 72 percent of Syrians (16.7 million people) now depend on aid. The Syrian pound has collapsed because of hyperinflation, making food unaffordable. The 2023 earthquakes affected 8.8 million people and hurt an already weak economy.
Children under five face “alarming malnutrition rates,” the IRC reports. Many families have faced multiple displacements. These pressures will worsen if the conflict escalates in 2025, even after the surprise ouster of Bashar al Assad in December 2024..
Uncertainty about Syria’s future could devolve into renewed conflict. In the past, armed groups have fought amongst themselves, and this could happen again. More Turkish action in northern Syria could worsen the crisis and other groups like Islamic State could exploit the chaos and destabilize the region.
Drought could continue to restrict access to water in 2025. Cholera is already present and could spread quickly in overcrowded camps with limited water access. About half of the health care facilities are not operational. Over one-third of public hospitals are partially or completely out of service.
The IRC has been working in Syria since 2012 and is currently responding to needs in northern Syria, directly and in partnership with local organizations. The group provides health care, including support for health facilities and mobile health teams, counseling and protection services for women and children, particularly survivors of violence. IRC also provides cash assistance, early recovery and early childhood development support.
- Myanmar: Conflict accelerates nationwide
Myanmar is in the top three of the Emergency Watchlist for the first time due to escalating conflict and climate disasters.
Violence has worsened since the military took control in 2021. Long-standing insurgencies have spread and merged into a wider conflict, leading to the displacement of over three million people.
In addition, cyclones and floods continue to devastate communities. The country’s water and health systems, which were already affected by war, are not prepared to handle the increasing needs.
Widespread violence will continue after a short-lived ceasefire collapsed, according to the IRC, and nonstate armed groups are uniting against Myanmar’s ruling State Administration Council.
Cholera and other diseases threaten to overwhelm the health system in Myanmar. It has already experienced over 1,500 attacks since 2021.
Vulnerable communities in Myanmar could face devastating cyclones and floods in 2025. The country gets just 0.25 percent of global climate funding. This leaves resilience efforts severely underfunded.
Increasing violence, red tape and lack of funding make aid delivery harder. In 2025, only a small fraction of the 19.9 million people in need of aid are expected to get support.
In 2008, the IRC responded to Cyclone Nargis in Myanmar. Since then, the group’s efforts have broadened to help those affected by the 2021 conflict and support displaced communities in six Myanmar states.
- Occupied Palestinian territory (oPt): Gaza devastated while West Bank sees record violence
More than a year of conflict has devastated Gaza. The latest escalation began in October 2023 when Hamas and other armed groups attacked southern Israel, killing 1,200 people and taking over 200 hostages. In response, Israel launched airstrikes and ground operations against Hamas, with the conflict sparking an ongoing humanitarian catastrophe.
There is no safe place in Gaza: more than one in every 50 people there have been killed since October 2023. Civilians in the West Bank have also faced record-level challenges due to Israeli military operations and settler violence in 2024, the IRC and many others report.
Without a lasting ceasefire, civilian casualties will increase in 2025.
According to local media reports, 30 Palestinians were killed in the central Gaza area overnight on December 13, 2024 due to airstrikes, said Louise Wateridge, senior emergencies officer with the United Nations Palestine refugee agency UNRWA, speaking to reporters in Geneva from central Gaza.
“We’ve seen absolutely horrific images from the scene. There are parents looking for their children, children covered in dust and blood, looking for their parents, multiple injuries on top of the casualties reported, and people still buried under the rubble,” she said.
These airstrikes came one day after the UN General Assembly passed a resolution demanding an immediate, unconditional, and permanent ceasefire in Gaza.
Wateridge described the situation as ”absolutely sickening,” noting such daily pain and suffering has become the norm for Palestinians living in the Gaza Strip.
Hospitals are overwhelmed, with doctors struggling to treat life-threatening injuries, prevent infections, and address treatable illnesses. The situation is compounded by severe shortages of essentials, including insulin, syringes, and cancer medications.
“Gaza now has the highest number of child amputees per capita anywhere in the world. Children are among the hardest hit, with Gaza now reporting the highest per capita number of child amputees globally,” Wateridge said.
“Many are losing their limbs. And in scenarios such as this, they’re undergoing surgeries without anaesthesia. I spoke to doctors at Nasser Hospital. This is the largest, semi-functioning, hospital in the Gaza Strip now. And they’re absolutely beside themselves.”
Almost the entire population of Gaza faces crisis-level or worse food insecurity. Food security experts warn that famine could take hold across all of Gaza if the conflict and restrictions on humanitarian and commercial supplies continue.
The collapse of the humanitarian system, including hospitals, will leave civilians without the services they need in 2025.
Rapid settlement growth and land expropriation are expected to fuel tensions in the West Bank. Palestinian communities are at risk of losing access to essential services and the ability to provide for their families.
In Gaza, the IRC provides clean drinking water, malnutrition treatment and child protection and mental health services. The group supports emergency medical care in the few hospitals still functioning and provides medical supplies and strengthens hospitals for mass casualty care. In the West Bank, the IRC and its partners provide mental health protection and early childhood development services.
- Sudan: Civilians bear the brunt of war
For the second year in a row, Sudan tops the Emergency Watchlist as the country’s excruciating civil war continues. Sudan now accounts for the largest humanitarian crisis on record and the world’s largest and fastest displacement crisis.
The war between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces is having a devastating impact on civilians. “International humanitarian law is being ignored. Sexual violence and the recruitment of child soldiers have become common as both sides regularly target civilians amid reports of ethnic cleansing,” the IRC reports, adding that regular attacks on health care and humanitarian aid have left civilians without access to lifesaving services.
The civil war is expected to continue as warring parties reject diplomacy. Civilians will be most impacted as human rights violations go unchecked, the IRC warns.
In October, an escalation of hostilities in eastern Aj Jazirah State was marked by extreme violence. A horrific campaign of destruction and killings of civilians is ongoing, forcing at least 119,000 people from multiple locations in Aj Jazirah to flee to nearby states.
“We left with only the clothes on our backs. Entire villages emptied, families scattered, and we lost our relatives. Every place we reached was already preparing to flee. Some of us walked for days, others rode on tractors, just trying to escape,” a survivor of the Aj Jazirah attacks told IRC workers.
Further West in Darfur, civilians in El Fasher remain trapped and have been almost entirely cut off from assistance for the past eight months as siege and bombings of the city continue.
Hostilities along the border have forced 25,000 people to flee to Chad in one week. In the capital Khartoum, and in Kordofan, reports of civilians caught up in fighting continue.
In 2024, 750,000 people experienced catastrophic levels of food insecurity so severe that people starved to death daily. Famine has been confirmed in specific areas and will spread across Sudan if fighting does not stop.
The war has crippled Sudan’s health system. The country is failing to prevent treatable diseases like cholera, and the IRC expects disease outbreaks to increase in 2025. Without swift action to protect humanitarian aid workers and the delivery of aid, many will be left without support.
When the conflict began in 2023, the IRC adapted programs and increased its response to meet rising needs. Today, the organization continues to provide support in Blue Nile, Gedaref, Khartoum, River Nile and White Nile states, and it has a logistics and coordination office in Port Sudan.
For all of these desperate situations, the United Nations High Commission for Refugees, UNHCR, is urgently calling on the international community for new funding to respond to the crises.
“The needs are vast, and the challenges are numerous,” says Raouf Mazou, UNHCR’s Assistant High Commissioner for Operations. “If the crisis continues, peace and stability across the region could be at stake.”
Featured image: Smoke caused by the impact of a missile strike rises over the Haret Hreik neighborhood of Beirut, Lebanon, on November 15, 2024 .
© UNHCR/Ximena Borrazas