Vulnerable Caribbean Nations Prepare for Global Warming

KINGSTON, Jamaica, June 4, 2001 (ENS) - Global warming is predicted to hit the Caribbean islands with natural disasters of increasing number and severity, regional climate change experts are warning. Governments and inter-governmental agencies, community groups and scientists are mobilizing to deal with the danger.

Already one of the most disaster prone regions of the world, the vulnerable Caribbean islands will be exposed to hurricanes and the associated storm surges and wave actions, earthquakes and the tsunamis they generate, volcanic eruptions, land and rock slides, flooding and drought, local climate change scientists predict.

In his report to the Caribbean Planning for Adaptation to Global Climate Change program, Jamaican climate change expert Clifford Mahlung of the National Meteorological Service says, "Sea level rise associated with coastal erosion, salt water intrusion into estuaries and aquifers and an escalation in the frequency and intensity of hurricanes will perhaps be the most serious environmental damage facing the small island states."

The Caribbean adaptation planning program is designed to support the participating Caribbean countries in preparing to cope with the adverse effects of global climate change, particularly sea level rise in coastal and marine areas. The program is engaged in vulnerability assessment, adaptation planning, and capacity building linked to adaptation planning. It is funded by the Global Environment Facility, implemented by the World Bank and executed by the Organization of American States.

Jamaican workshop participants learn data analysis for climate change assessments. (Photo courtesy Caribbean Planning for Adaptation to Global Climate Change (CPAGCC))

This is the result of water extraction for domestic use, the extraction of petroleum and compaction of sediments due mainly the loss of coastal vegetation and soil erosion.

Jamaican authorities estimated in 1990 that it would take US$462 million to protect coastal tourism on this island alone.

In a region where most tourism, agricultural and industrial development takes place along the coasts, these economic engines will be severely disrupted, Mahlung forecasts.

The region's premier crops of bananas, rice, and sugar cane will feel the effects of water logging and increased salinity as the seas invade water tables.

The health and well being of Caribbean populations, 60 pecent of whom occupy coastal plains, will be affected as problems associated with the disposal of sewage and solid waste and the contamination of ground water supplies increases.

"Climate change is likely to bring declining soil fertility, droughts, flooding and deforestation, and the displacement of many who depend on the costal resources," said Mahlung.

This week, World Environment Week, the Jamaican National Environment and Planning Agency is holding conferences and launching a website to focus public attention on the immediate dangers of climate change to increase awareness and stimulate local action. Highlights of the week are World Environment Day June 5 and World Oceans Day June 8.

Diver explores a Caribbean reef. (Photo by Dr. Anthony Picciolo courtesy U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration)

Susan Anderson, executive director at the Negril Area Environmental Protection Trust, says many projects of the trust's projects focus on local fishermen. Over the last 10 years, she says, overfishing and dying reefs have reduced their standard of living. The trust has community meetings planned all this week to get people involved in planning for the predicted climate change disasters.

Thirty-three feet of the world famous white sand beach at Negril washed away between 1995 and 1998. University of the West Indies' geologist Ted Robinson says a combination of human activities, increased storm surges and the 1.5 degree Celsius rise in sea temperatures already recorded in the region that are responsible for the beach erosion.

In the eastern parish of Portland, where waterlogging once robbed farmers of their crops, deforestation is causing higher temperatures and reduced rainfalls. Data from the National Meteorological Service indicates that since 1997 there has been a 60 percent reduction in the parish's rainfall.

Hillside temperatures are up four degrees Celsius (7.2 degrees Fahrenheit), environmentalist Marguerite Gauron says. Gauron's Portland Environmental Project is monitoring climate change. The group is working to replant hillsides left bare by deforestation for coffee, one of the more economically viable Jamaican crops.

These problems demonstrate the vulnerability of the small island developing states to the combined stresses of climate, poverty, population pressures and trade pressures, Mahlung said. Several climate experts note that poverty in the region hampers the ability to deal with changes and adapt to natural disasters.

Law professor Eric Dannenmaier writing for the Canadian Foundation of the Americas points out that severe weather events such as Hurricane Mitch that swept across the Caribbean and Central America in early December 1998 threaten the security of states and populations. He believes human induced climate change is one of the driving elements linked to increasingly severe weather patterns. The Caribbean is particularly at risk, Dannenmaier says.

An estimated 19,000 people died as a result of Hurricane Mitch, which also caused the displacement of three million people.

Assessment group surveys effects of climate change on Jamaican coast (Photo courtesy CPAGCC)

Dannenmaier points out that climate changes threaten the viability of Caribbean communities and economies partly because of inappropriate planning. Key factors include the long term impact of population growth, land use decisions, poorly managed resource exploitation and the lack of a strategic energy policies.

Dannenmaier says that technology transfer can help reduce the vulnerability of small island states to climate change. But for many countries of the region, this is unlikely unless the help promised by the world's developed nations at the 1992 United Nations Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro is forthcoming.

Caribbean planners are not waiting for more developed nations to give them funds and technology. Several components of the Caribbean Planning for Adaptation to Global Climate Change program are moving forward now.

The reef research component is investigating the extent and sources of coral reef degradation in three countries - the Bahamas, Belize, and Jamaica. Building upon ongoing coral reef monitoring, researchers developing a long term monitoring program to show the effects of global warming factors such as temperature stress, sea level rise, and hurricanes on coral reefs.

Components dealing with coastal resources and use and with vulnerability and risk assessment are developing each participating country's inventory of coastal resources to provide the necessary baseline data for choices about future protective activities.

The Caribbean countries face difficult decisions in confronting the adverse effects of global climate change and associated sea level rise. The costs of adapting to a rise in sea level could be very large compared to the size of the economies of the small island developing countries.

To read Eric Dannenmaier's policy paper, "Environmental Security and Governance in the Americas," click here.